📈 2026 Financial Outlook: The Rise of the ‘Intentional Consumer’

Sri Lanka enters 2026 with a strategic shift toward financial resilience, as households navigate a "cost of living crunch" despite stable inflation. Amidst a projected GDP growth of 3.2% - 5.0%, consumer behavior is evolving from impulsive spending to "intentional" daily habits to preserve disposable income. • Overall Economic Context • Inflation: Projected to average 2.8% in 2026, remaining below the Central Bank’s 5% target due to subdued demand. • Reserves: Gross Official Reserves reached US$ 6.8 Bn by end-2025, the highest since the crisis. • Exchange Rate: The LKR is under pressure, with forecasts around Rs. 307.8 per US$, raising the cost of essential imports. • Key Consumer Trends for 2026 • Loud Budgeting: A shift toward vocalizing financial boundaries, reducing the social pressure to spend and fostering shared financial values. • Micro-Saving: Adoption of "round-up" resolutions to the nearest Rupee on digital transactions—a modern "penny jar" for the ICT/BPM enabled economy. • Tactical Retail: Growth in "yellow sticker" shopping and a 24-hour "cooling-off" period for online checkouts to combat retail impulse spending. • Sector Impact • Retail & FMCG: Supermarket markdowns are reducing monthly food bills by up to 30% as price sensitivity peaks. • Banking: Increased focus on micro-savings and digital "Pay by Bank" features to mobilize domestic liquidity. • Apparel & Textiles: High-margin sectors face pressure as Gen Z consumers prioritize value and brand authenticity over fast fashion.