📈 CBSL Predicts Reserves to Hit Post-Crisis High in December!

• Sri Lanka’s Gross Official Reserves (GOR) are expected to climb to the highest level since the height of the economic crisis by end-December, comfortably meeting the IMF reserve target. • The surge is underpinned by anticipated fresh inflows of over US$ 700 Mn: • IMF Extended Fund Facility (5th tranche): US$ 340 Mn • ADB Budgetary Support: US$ 370 Mn • The final month of the year also traditionally brings stronger foreign exchange via exports, workers’ remittances, and tourism receipts. • Note: November reserves will appear lower than October due to timing effects, but a sharp rebound is expected in December. • Economic Outlook & Policy: • Current Account: Expected surplus of ~1% of GDP (US$ 1 Bn) for 2025. • GDP Growth: Projected at 4.5% this year (following 5% last year), driven by a recovery in imports reflecting improved economic activity. • Exchange Rate: Remains market-determined; CBSL intervenes only to offset excessive volatility (recent fluctuations included a gradual ~5% depreciation). • Inflation: Expected to rise more gradually than previously forecasted, with the CBSL's 5% target anticipated by the second half of 2026.