📈 El Niño Threatens Up to 30% Paddy Harvest Drop in Maha 2026/27

Severe El Niño conditions and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole pose critical risks to Sri Lanka's food security, agricultural output, and rural economy. • Harvest Risk & Food Supply: Paddy production in Maha 2026/27 could decline by upwards of 30%, risking rice shortages and high consumer prices by June 2027 once existing stocks deplete. • Farmer Vulnerability: Heavy rainfall (Oct–Nov) threatens flash floods, followed by dry weather (Dec–Apr). Dearth of short-age seed varieties limits farmer adaptation choices. • Irrigation Crisis: National irrigation efficiency stands at ~30% due to leaks and outdated technology, with small agricultural tanks operating near 10% capacity. • Policy & Structural Recommendations: • Pass the Plant Varieties Protection Act to encourage private investment in short-age and drought-resistant paddy seeds. • Reform irrigation management through public-private partnerships and market principles. • Transition from slow state payout schemes (up to LKR 100,000/acre) to private sector, index-based crop insurance.