## 📈 Era of Weaponised Trade: SL Marks 78 Years of Independence

Following the devastation of Cyclone Ditwah and the 2022 economic collapse, Sri Lanka marks its 78th year of independence by navigating a globally "weaponised" trade landscape where economic deals are increasingly tied to superpower foreign policies. • Economic Targets & Stability The economy has reached a state of stability with a projected 5% growth target for 2026. This optimistic forecast significantly outpaces the IMF’s projection of 3.1% and contrasts with stagnation in advanced economies like Germany (1%). Growth is currently supported by a commitment to the open-market model and corruption-free management under the current administration. • The Geopolitical Tug-of-War India: Allocated INR 4 billion (US$ 43.6 million) in its 2026-27 Budget for Sri Lanka, balancing its own trade interests after a major deal with the US to reduce tariffs to 18%. China: Nearing finalization of a US$ 3.7 billion oil refinery in Hambantota—the largest single FDI in SL history—under the Belt and Road Initiative. USA: Trade dynamics are shifting as the US uses tariffs (e.g., targeting Indian imports of Russian oil) to enforce global alliances, pressuring small island nations to align. • Sectoral Outlook & Risks Energy & Infrastructure: The Sinopec refinery remains a pillar for foreign exchange, though it faces pressure to remain strictly export-oriented. Foreign Policy: National sovereignty is at risk as FDI becomes a tool for regional dominance in the Indian Ocean. Reforms: Pundits call for "big bang" reforms and ICT/BPM integration to bypass traditional trade barriers and secure non-aligned growth.