📈 Fertilizer Shortage & Price Spikes Threaten Plantation Output

The Planters’ Association of Ceylon (PA) has warned of a looming crisis in the plantation sector due to severe supply chain disruptions in the Middle East. With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz down by 90%, the industry faces significant risks to yield, export revenue, and national food security. • Global Supply Crunch: The Gulf region accounts for 30-35% of global urea exports. Conflicts have caused world urea prices to surge from US$ 460 to US$ 690 per metric ton (+50%) in just one month (Feb-March 2026). • Domestic Shortage: Current national fertilizer stocks cover only 60% of the required 98,800 metric tons for the Yala season. While a 25,000 MT shipment is expected this week, experts deem it insufficient for total sectoral needs. • Economic Impact: The PA warns that reduced yields in tea, rubber, and coconut over the next 2-4 months could destabilize the Balance of Payments (BOP), increase inflation, and reduce foreign exchange earnings. • Sector Vulnerability: Regional Plantation Companies (RPCs) and smallholders are under extreme pressure from rising production costs. The industry has yet to fully recover from the 2021 organic fertilizer transition. • Mitigation Efforts: The Government has increased subsidies to Rs. 18,000 for additional crops and is negotiating emergency supplies from Russia and India following China’s export halt.