📈 Future of Revenue: The Rise of Predictive Taxpayers
Artificial Intelligence is fundamentally shifting global taxation from a backward-looking system to one driven by future probability. Large corporations are now using predictive tools to anticipate tax enforcement, potentially undermining long-term revenue stability through "legal anticipation." • Key Shift in Compliance The traditional model of reacting to audits is being replaced by AI-driven forecasting. Firms now adjust investments and business structures based on predicted shifts in policy, public opinion, and enforcement trends before new laws are even passed. • Risks to the National Economy • Revenue Erosion: Assets and supply chains may be relocated as soon as reforms are hinted at, shrinking the tax base before legislation takes effect. • The Fairness Gap: A "two-speed" system is emerging. Large multinationals use expensive AI to navigate risks, while SMEs and individual taxpayers remain reactive, potentially eroding public trust in tax fairness. • Forecasting Instability: Historical data is becoming less reliable for state revenue projections as taxpayer behavior shifts based on rumors and signals. • Strategic Outlook for Sri Lanka While the domestic administration remains largely reactive, multinationals in Sri Lanka already utilize global predictive systems. To protect domestic revenue needed for recovery, the state must: • Develop institutional AI tools to identify avoidance patterns early. • Ensure clear, timely legislation to reduce speculative planning. • Strengthen international data-sharing to track cross-border tax shifts.