Global Air Passenger Demand Drops 3.4% in April Amid Middle East Conflict 📈

• Overall Figures: Total global passenger demand (RPK) fell -3.4% YoY in April 2026, severely impacted by a 46.6% drop in Middle East carrier demand due to regional war. Global capacity (ASK) decreased -2.9% YoY, with a load factor of 83.1% (-0.4 ppt). Excluding the Middle East, global demand actually increased by 1.2%. • International vs. Domestic: International demand dropped -5.3% YoY (but grew 1.9% excluding the Middle East), while international capacity fell -5.1%. Domestic demand remained flat YoY, with capacity up 0.8% and a load factor of 81.9%. • Regional Breakdown: • Asia-Pacific: Achieved a 3.0% YoY demand increase. Capacity rose 0.7% and the load factor hit a record April high of 87.5% (+1.9 ppt). Traffic slowed on the Japan-China corridor due to political tensions. • Europe: Demand grew 0.9% YoY. Notably, direct Europe-Asia traffic surged 15.3% as airlines bypassed Middle East transit hubs, highlighting a structural shift in routing relevant to global connectivity. • Middle East: Demand collapsed by -48.1% YoY, and capacity fell -38.4% due to the Iran war, though an uneasy ceasefire slowed the decline slightly compared to March. • Other Regions: Latin America led growth with an 8.9% demand increase, Africa grew 2.2%, and North America remained flat (0.0%). • Market Outlook: Jet fuel costs more than doubled in April, driving up airfares. Forward schedules show reduced capacity as airlines balance extreme fuel costs and weaker demand.