Global Economic Outlook: Fitch Raises 2026 Growth to 2.6% Amid Rising Real Rates 📈

• Global Outlook: Fitch Ratings raised its 2026 global GDP growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6% (vs. 2.7% in 2025). The upward revision reflects economic resilience despite persistent energy price shocks and higher real policy rates. • Key Regional Forecasts: • US: Growth forecast upgraded to 2.1% for 2026 and 2027, driven by resilient private consumption and ongoing investments in ICT/BPM and AI infrastructure. • Eurozone: Modest recovery led by Germany (GDP +1% YoY in 2Q26 after 3 years of stagnation). • Asia & Emerging Markets: Strong performance in India, while Korea benefits from the global IT boom. China’s growth forecast was cut by 0.1 pp to 4.5% due to weak domestic demand, despite strong export growth. • Monetary & Policy Shift: Central banks are shifting to tighter monetary policy to prevent second-round inflation from input costs: • US Federal Reserve expected to hike rates in December 2026 and hold at 4.25% through 2027 (+125 bps higher than prior estimates). • European Central Bank (ECB) projected to raise rates in October before potential easing in 2027 as oil normalizes toward US$ 70/bbl. • Risks & Market Impact: Higher real interest rates are driving up global bond yields, which could weigh on housing and credit growth. Downside risks include equity market corrections in technology valuations and persistent geopolitical energy disruptions.