📈 Global Growth Outlook Trimmed Amid Oil Crisis

Fitch Ratings has lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.4%, a 0.2pp reduction due to the oil crisis caused by the US-Iran conflict. • Global Forecasts: US growth revised down to 1.9% (-0.3pp); Eurozone to 0.9% (-0.4pp). China’s forecast raised to 4.6% (+0.3pp) following resilient export data. • Oil Impact: Brent crude price assumption hiked to USD 87/bbl from USD 70/bbl. The Strait of Hormuz closure remains a major headwind, though global oil intensity is lower than in the 1970s. • Tech Cushion: Strong momentum in ICT/BPM and semiconductor investments is offsetting oil-driven slowdowns, particularly in Asia. Global semiconductor sales surged 80% YoY in March. • Economic Buffers: US IT investment grew 18% YoY in 1Q26, supporting global trade despite inflationary pressures. • Monetary Policy: Central banks are cautious; the Fed and Bank of England are expected to hold rates throughout 2026, while the ECB signals a potential 25bp hike this June. Note: Based on Fitch Ratings' June 2026 Global Economic Outlook.