🚢 Global Maritime Shipping Disruptions Spike Trade Costs & Inflation Risk

Severe geopolitical tensions across key maritime chokepoints are driving up shipping expenses, delaying commodity flows, and creating global inflationary risks. • Overall Impact & Global Outlook • Freight, fuel, and operational costs are surging due to forced rerouting and voyage delays. • War-risk insurance premiums are climbing rapidly across affected routes. • The World Bank projects global growth at 2.5% in 2026 with inflation around 4%, warning of mounting consumer price pressures. • Key Regional Route Disruptions • Black Sea: Attacks dropped Ukrainian port capacity to ~4.00 Mn tons/month (down from ~6.00 Mn tons). Over 57 commercial vessels hit in a single month. War-risk insurance premiums doubled from 1% to 2% of vessel value. • Red Sea & Suez Canal: Houthi attacks forced transits around Africa's Cape of Good Hope. Suez Canal traffic collapsed by 60%–64% YoY (weekly transits dropped from ~250 to <100 vessels). • Strait of Hormuz: Middle East military tensions cut daily ship transits from 130–140 down to 4–8 on critical days. Crude oil flows plummeted from 11.90 Mn bpd to ~1.70 Mn bpd, threatening global energy supplies. • Economic Implications for Sri Lanka • Increases import costs for critical national inputs like energy & fuel, raw materials, and petrochemicals. • Directly impacts supply chain costs and delivery timelines for major export sectors such as tea, apparel & textiles, and spices. • Offers potential upside for the port & logistics sector, positioning the Port of Colombo as a strategic Indian Ocean transshipment hub as ocean carriers alter trade routes.