📈 Global Markets Rally as Oil Drops Below US$ 100 on Peace Hopes

Global equity markets are poised for a second week of gains as investor optimism rises regarding a resolution to Middle East tensions. Despite the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, diplomatic breakthroughs have shifted market sentiment toward a "pre-war" recovery phase. • Energy Prices: Brent crude fell over 1% to US$ 98.14 per barrel, while U.S. WTI dropped 1.6% to US$ 93.15. This easing follows a 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon and potential high-level U.S.-Iran talks. • Equity Performance: The MSCI Asia-Pacific index is up 14.5% in April, recovering nearly all losses from the March slump (-13.5%). While Japan’s Nikkei saw a minor 0.9% dip after hitting record highs, U.S. markets (S&P 500 and Nasdaq) continue to close at record peaks. • Currency & Macro Risks: The U.S. Dollar Index remains near its lowest levels since early March (98.24) as safe-haven demand cools. However, analysts warn of "market complacency" given the IMF’s recent downgrade of global growth and the risk of recession if the waterway remains closed. • Impact Context: For Sri Lanka, sustained oil prices below US$ 100 is critical for managing energy costs and stabilizing inflation. However, the reopening of shipping lanes remains the primary catalyst needed to secure long-term stability for the export and logistics sectors.