📈 Global Oil Surges over 7% Weekly Amid Supply Threats

• Market Trends & Price Movements: Global oil prices rose over 7% for the week despite a slight Friday pull-back. Brent crude dropped $3.75 (-3.48%) to $103.88/bbl, while WTI fell $3.33 (-3.25%) to $99.15/bbl. U.S. diesel hit a historic high, surpassing $6.00/gallon. • Middle East Shipping & Supply Disruptions: Escalating Middle East conflict—including Iranian attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi activity in the Red Sea—stoked fears of prolonged disruptions. Strait transit fell to 7 vessels/day (down from a 10-day average of 15). Possible diplomatic talks provided minor price relief. • Key Commodities & Economic Risks: Refined products like diesel and jet fuel face upside price risks due to combined shipping bottlenecks and Russian refining outages. Commerzbank raised its year-end Brent forecast to $85/bbl, while China increased retail petrol/diesel price caps. • Impact on Sri Lanka: Sharp global crude spikes put immense pressure on Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange reserves and national import bill, as the country relies heavily on petroleum imports. Higher refined product costs risk driving up domestic fuel prices, transport fares, and manufacturing overheads, impacting core export sectors like apparel & textiles.