📈 Global Stability Update: Middle East War Impacts Markets

Financial markets are facing heightened stability risks as the conflict in the Middle East tests global resilience. While market functioning remains orderly, tightening financial conditions and energy-driven inflation pose significant challenges for 2026. • Market Impact & Volatility The conflict has triggered a swift repricing of assets. Equity prices have declined while sovereign bond yields have risen globally. Despite the shock, liquidity remains stable, though current prices may not yet reflect the most adverse geopolitical scenarios. • Inflation & Monetary Pressure The primary transmission channel is through higher energy prices, pushing up inflation expectations. This has led to a flattening of the yield curve, signaling potential risks to long-term economic growth and labor markets. Central banks face a delicate balance between price stability and growth. • Emerging Market Vulnerabilities Emerging economies, including those with high external financing needs like Sri Lanka, are increasingly sensitive to global risk sentiment. Elevated debt levels and the shift toward price-sensitive non-bank investors mean sovereign yields may react forcefully to further shocks. • Key Risks & Amplification Private Credit: Rapid growth and opacity in direct lending pose systemic risks. Leverage: High leverage in non-bank financial sectors could trigger forced-selling through margin calls. Fiscal Space: Many nations face limited fiscal room due to persistent deficits and high debt. _Note: Based on the April 2026 Global Financial Stability Report._