📈 IMF Highlights Oil Prices and Weak Monsoon as Risks to India’s FY27 Growth

• Key Growth Forecasts: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut India’s GDP growth forecast for 2026/27 by 10 bps to 6.4%, while raising the 2027/28 forecast by 20 bps to 6.7%. • Primary Downside Risks: • Energy Shocks: A widening Middle East conflict and potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are driving up crude oil prices. As India imports ~80% of its oil, high energy costs threaten growth and fuel inflation. • Monsoon & Agriculture: Potential El Niño effects and a delayed monsoon pose further risks to output, impact not yet fully captured in current projections. • National Accounts Reassessment: The IMF will reassess India’s national accounts statistics—previously rated 'C' due to methodological weaknesses—following the release of back-series data tied to the updated 2022/23 base year expected later in 2026. Recent updates include expanded deflators, double deflation in manufacturing, and modernized digital data collection.