📈 IPS Advocates Continued IMF Engagement Post-2027 to Address 'Debt Overhang'

• Post-Restructuring Strategy: The Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) proposes a successor IMF arrangement following the current EFF program's end in March 2027 to serve as a vital credibility anchor. • Market & Borrowing Risks: Warns that exiting debt distress involves persistent elevated spreads and restricted market access. Premature commercial borrowing could revive external liquidity pressures and rollover risks before foreign reserves and export earnings strengthen. • Key Economic Sectors & Drivers: Highlights the necessity of structural reforms targeting export diversification, reserve accumulation, and fiscal consolidation to lower sovereign risk premia. Notes pro-cyclical risks from external shocks, including climate variability (El Niño cycles) affecting macro stability. • Fiscal Governance & Reforms: Calls for a unified digital public financial management system (replacing ITMIS) to track the full project lifecycle and combat debt opacity. Recommends an independent Fiscal Council to monitor contingent liabilities, state-owned enterprise (SOE) obligations, and deliver independent macro-fiscal forecasts.