🚨 Maha 2026/27: Delaying Cultivation to Nov/Dec Recommended Amid El Niño Risk

• Water Crisis & Depletion: Irrigation storage in 74 major reservoirs has dropped sharply to ~35% (1,465 Mn m³) of gross capacity as of late August 2026, down from 63% in early June. Critical tanks like Senanayake Samudraya are at just ~18%, while Ampara district overall stands at ~22%. • Mahaweli & Minor Reservoirs: Upstream Mahaweli storage remains moderate (Victoria 60%, Moragahakanda 61%), but key downstream reservoirs like Kalawewa (32%), Kaudulla (28%), and Minneriya (39%) face severe deficits. Minor village tanks covering ~185,000 ha are largely dry, impacting agriculture and rural domestic water supplies. • Climate Uncertainty: Exceptional Pacific warming signals a strong El Niño threat through Q1 2027. With unassured monsoon rains, early October planting poses severe crop loss risks for the paddy sector after heavy input investments. • Water-First Strategy: Delaying main cultivation until November or December serves as a prudent risk-management tool. Using short-aged crop varieties will still allow a March harvest and protect the subsequent Yala 2027 season. _Note: Recommendations are based on provisional reservoir and climate data._