Oil Prices Ease as Iraq Exports Resume Amid Middle East Tensions 📉

• Market Impact: Global oil prices edged lower on Wednesday, paring back previous sharp gains. Brent crude futures fell 0.65% to US$ 102.75 per barrel, while U.S. WTI dropped 1.23% to US$ 95.03 per barrel. • Supply Relief: The Iraqi government and Kurdish authorities reached a deal to resume exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan port. Flows are expected to start at 100,000 bpd; however, analysts note this remains a minor fraction of the 2 Mn bpd Iraq has lost during the ongoing conflict. • Geopolitical Risks: Despite the export deal, Brent remains above US$ 100 as the conflict with Iran shows no signs of de-escalation. Total production from Iraq’s southern fields has plunged 70% to 1.3 Mn bpd due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for 20% of global supply. • Regional Volatility: Tensions spiked following the death of Iran’s security chief in an Israeli attack and subsequent U.S. military strikes on Iranian coastal missile sites. Iran has reportedly rejected all de-escalation offers from intermediaries. • Inventory Data: U.S. crude stocks rose by 6.56 Mn barrels for the week ended March 13 (API data), significantly higher than the 380,000-barrel increase anticipated by analysts, providing further downward pressure on prices.