Oil Prices Surge 2%+ Amid Strait of Hormuz Disruptions 📈

• Global Market Impact: Brent crude jumped 2.5% to US$ 102.69/bbl, while WTI rose 2.6% to US$ 95.92/bbl. This follows a volatile period where the Strait of Hormuz—handling 20% of global oil and LNG trade—remains largely shut due to the three-week-old U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. • Supply Risks & Logistics: Brent forecasts for 2026 have been revised upward, with Standard Chartered projecting US$ 85.50 (up from $70) due to potential prolonged disruptions. The UAE, a major OPEC producer, has reportedly cut production by more than half. • Sri Lankan Context: As a net importer of refined petroleum and fossil fuels, sustained prices above $100/bbl pose significant risks to Sri Lanka’s trade balance and domestic energy costs. Rising global energy prices typically exert pressure on the electricity and transport sectors, potentially impacting the cost of production for apparel & textiles and tea exports. • Geopolitical Strain: Supply remains tight as U.S. allies rebuff calls for naval escorts in the Gulf. The IEA is considering further strategic reserve releases to curb inflation and rising costs. Israel indicates at least three more weeks of military operations, suggesting continued market volatility.