### Risk of Power Cuts Amid CEB Restructuring 📈

The Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) has warned of potential power interruptions due to low-quality coal and regional instability. With the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) transitioning into six separate companies as of 9 March 2026, concerns remain regarding operational continuity and grid stability. • Current Energy Context Peak Demand: Current daily peak is 2,949 MW; power cuts are triggered if demand exceeds 3,000–3,070 MW. External Risks: Global crude oil prices reaching US$ 95–150 per barrel and a weakening Rupee (above Rs. 315/US$) threaten thermal power costs. Generation Costs: Oil-based power now exceeds Rs. 70 per unit, while major hydro remains cost-effective at under Rs. 2.50 per unit. • The Shift to Off-Grid Solar Solar Constraints: The CEB has reportedly halted new grid connections for rooftop solar PV under the "Surya Bala Sangraamaya" scheme. Battery Barriers: High import levies of 46% on deep-cycle batteries limit financial feasibility primarily to consumers using over 300 units monthly. Proposed Solution: A consumer-funded off-grid model using solar and battery storage could reduce peak demand by 125 MW if adopted by 25,000 high-end users, potentially eliminating the need for expensive oil-based generation. • Economic Impact Subsidies: Data suggests low-end consumers (under 60 units) may actually be subsidizing high-end users, as their consumption is easily met by low-cost hydro power. Forex Savings: Reducing battery import taxes could lower investment thresholds, saving significant foreign exchange currently spent on fuel imports. _Note: Summary based on provisional data and expert commentary as of March 2026._