⚡ Rooftop Solar: National Asset or Grid Burden for Sri Lanka?

Sri Lanka’s rooftop solar sector faces a policy shift as rapid capacity growth presents both major fuel-cost savings and operational grid challenges, raising debate over government plans to transition new connections to the Net Plus scheme. • Capacity & Generation: Total installed solar power capacity exceeded 3,070 MW by Sept 2026 (2,542 MW rooftop, 534 MW ground-mounted), contributing 15–25% of daily electricity. In H1 2026, rooftop solar generated ~1,228 GWh (~13% of total generation), averaging 6.8 million units per day. • Generation Cost Breakdown: Forecast Q4 2026 average generation costs per unit highlight the economic trade-offs: • Thermal-diesel: Rs. 262.25 • Thermal-furnace oil: Rs. 66.50 • Thermal-naphtha: Rs. 50.40 • Coal: Rs. 29.45 • Rooftop solar: Rs. 28.20 • Major hydro: Rs. 2.60 • Grid Challenges & Solutions: Rapid expansion causes frequency instability, lower system inertia, reverse power flow, and the "duck curve" evening peak. The National System Operator plans ~1,240 MW (4,660 MWh) of battery storage (BESS) for 2027–2029 to manage intermittency alongside proposed Time-of-Use tariffs. • Policy Shift: The Ministry of Energy directed new connections under the Net Plus scheme in Sept 2026 to separate generation and consumption billing, prompting calls from PUCSL and industry stakeholders for a transparent cost-benefit study to safeguard private investment in renewable energy.