Sri Lanka Faces Dual Farm Risk: Early Drought to Maha Flood Hazards 📈

• Overview: Sri Lanka's upcoming Maha 2026/27 season faces a complex dry-to-wet weather transition, risking severe agricultural disruption. Severe rainfall deficits during the Southwest Monsoon reach ~65% in Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa, and over 80% in Vavuniya. • Climate Signals: Strong El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions threaten early moisture stress in August–September, followed by potential excess rainfall and flooding from October to December. • Sector Impact: • _Agriculture & Paddy Cultivation_: The rice sector faces major risks across ~694,000 acres in 378 irrigation schemes. High input costs (fuel up 41%–44% since pre-crisis, global urea peaked at US$ 857/tonne, and Brent crude rose >50% earlier in 2026) compound production risks for smallholders. • _Perishables & Supply Chain_: Excessive rainfall threatens high post-harvest losses in vegetables and paddy due to field waterlogging and inadequate crop drying facilities. • Strategic Response: • Shift from a single national planting date to scheme-specific schedules (89 schemes to start pre-monsoon, 289 post-onset). • Establish strategic seed reserves and digital input vouchers for vulnerable smallholders. • Invest in post-harvest protection (drying, hermetic storage) to prevent up to 10% crop losses.