### **Politics & Government Impact** **Reasoning:** The article focuses on the institutional failures and governance choices surrounding disaster management in Sri Lanka. It identifies a "recurring weakness" in the country's **institutional competence**, **political courage**, and **command structures**. While the catalyst is a natural disaster (Cyclone Ditwah), the core of the text is a critique of **government policy** and a call for **legislative reform** and **political leadership** to empower a technically led command structure under the Ministry of Disaster Management. Since the primary focus is on how political stability, policy shifts, and public governance impact the country's ability to mitigate risks, it falls best under **Politics & Government Impact**.

📈 Sri Lanka Flood Risk: Urgency for Institutional Reform

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Following Cyclone Ditwah in late 2025—which caused an estimated US$ 4.1 Bn in direct damages (~4% of GDP)—Sri Lanka faces a critical need to transition from reactive disaster response to proactive risk management. • Economic Impact & Sectors Agriculture suffered US$ 814 Mn in losses, threatening food security and rural livelihoods. Physical infrastructure damage totaled US$ 1.74 Bn, disrupting apparel & textiles logistics and general commerce. The cyclone is expected to trim real GDP growth by 0.5%–0.7%. • Institutional Weaknesses Despite high technical competence in meteorology and hydrology, the absence of an empowered command structure leads to "decision paralysis." Current fragmented responsibility delays critical actions like pre-emptive reservoir water releases. • Proposed Strategic Shift • Command Structure: Establish a technically-led unit under the Ministry of Disaster Management with legal authority to regulate water levels before forecasted extremes. • Technical Integration: Leverage basin-scale modeling and university partnerships for "war-gaming" rainfall scenarios. • Urban Resilience: Prioritize drainage clearance and flood-plain regulations, which are more cost-effective than post-disaster relief. • Fiscal Outlook The government has allocated LKR 30 Bn for 2025 emergency needs, but total recovery costs could reach US$ 7 Bn. While fiscal buffers from a 2025 primary surplus (~Rs. 1.94 Tn) provide some relief, climate-induced risks remain a primary threat to long-term economic stability.

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