📊 Sri Lanka GDP Trajectory & Economic Outlook

• Recent Performance & Forecast: Sri Lanka's steady post-2022 recovery recorded GDP growth of 4.9% in 2Q 2025, ~5.4% in 3Q 2025, 4.8% in 4Q 2025, and 5.1% in 1Q 2026. However, growth is expected to slow sharply in 2Q 2026 due to an energy price shock from the Iran conflict and the closure of the country's sole oil refinery. • Structural Vulnerabilities: Key economic risks remain centered on a narrow export base, high dependence on imported energy, a developing tax administration, and ongoing debt restructuring under the IMF program. • Macro Context: Quarterly GDP figures serve as provisional estimates rather than final metrics. Institutions and sovereign bond markets evaluate economic health alongside high-frequency indicators such as electricity generation, port throughput, and customs data.