📈 Sri Lanka’s $5 Bn Tourism Goal: Structural Reform vs. Record Volume

Sri Lanka concluded 2025 with a historic 2.36 million arrivals and approximately US$ 3.2-3.5 Bn in revenue. However, experts warn that reaching the 2026 target of 3 million visitors and US$ 5 Bn in revenue requires a shift from "counting heads" to "measuring value." • Revenue & Yield Challenges To hit the US$ 5 Bn mark, average revenue per tourist must rise by 15% (from ~$1,460 to ~$1,670). Daily spend needs to jump from US$ 170 to nearly US$ 200, trailing regional peers like Thailand (>US$ 220). • Infrastructure Bottlenecks Aviation: BIA processed 11 million passengers in 2024, nearly double its 6 million design capacity. Terminal 2 is not expected until 2029. Guide Shortage: A 25% shortfall exists in licensed guides, with only 4,800 available against a requirement of 6,400. Capacity: Peak season sell-outs in coastal and hill-country areas indicate the system is operating at its limit. • Governance & Policy Friction Visa Policy: Frequent "flip-flops" and a lack of 60-day ETA visas for low-risk markets (UK, USA, EU) act as a deterrent. Levy Transparency: The Tourism Development Levy lacks public reporting on how funds are utilized for international marketing. Marketing: The absence of a stable, long-term global brand and "destination marketing vacuum" remains a core weakness. • Strategic Recommendations Diversify into experiential products (e.g., Pekoe Trail, Buddhist circuits). Activate Mattala Airport (MRIA) for charters to ease BIA congestion. Implement "carrying capacity" caps at hotspots like Yala and Sigiriya to preserve asset quality.