📈 Sri Lanka's Mid-Year Fiscal Report: $ 547.5 Mn Foreign Inflows

• Foreign Loan Disbursements (1H 2025): Total inflows reached $ 547.5 million. • Top Sources: The largest share came from the IMF EFF (61% of total), followed by the World Bank (16%) and ADB (11%). • Sector Allocation: Majority (65%) was channeled to Budget Support. • External Debt & Service: • Total External Debt: Stood at $ 37.1 Billion as of end-June 2025. • Debt Service Payments: Totaled $ 1.36 Bn in 1H 2025, with $ 863.6 Mn for principal. • Arrears Status: The Ministry confirmed no external payment arrears as of end-June 2025. • Debt Outlook & Projections: • Debt-to-GDP: Currently estimated at 104.6% (2024). The IMF projects a decline to 96.8% by 2030. • Optimistic Forecast: Local research projects Sri Lanka could achieve 85–87% of GDP by 2032, exceeding the IMF target. • 2028 Cliff: Repayments starting in 2028 will add an extra $ 1 Bn, totaling $ 3 Bn, easing fears of a sudden "debt cliff." • Central Bank Activity: • Reserves Building: CBSL purchased over $ 1.4 Bn from the domestic forex market YTD end-September 2025, supporting reserves of $ 6.2 Bn. • Context: This was driven by monthly current account surpluses sustained since January 2025, though the trend ended in September due to a rise in vehicle imports.