### 📈 Supply Chain Disruptions to Drive Higher Import and Energy Costs Through Q3 2026

Expert analysis from Shippers’ Academy Colombo warns that even if Middle East hostilities cease immediately, the ripple effects on global shipping and logistics will persist into 2Q and 3Q 2026, keeping import and energy costs elevated for Sri Lanka. • Shipping & Freight Costs: Vessel availability remains a critical bottleneck. Daily charter rates for large tankers have surged from US$ 180,000 to nearly US$ 300,000. Freight rates have doubled or tripled depending on routes due to war risk surcharges and rising insurance premiums. • Operational Delays: Rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Red Sea is adding up to 21 days in transit time. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped significantly, with daily vessel crossings falling from 140 to approximately 90. • Energy Impact: While the Government has secured fuel and gas orders through the end of 2026 via forward contracting, execution risks remain. Bunker fuel costs have spiked by nearly 150% following the shutdown of the Fujairah hub, directly inflating overall shipping expenses. • Economic Outlook: Disruptions are extending into aviation and land transport, threatening domestic price stability. While Sri Lankan ports may see a short-term boost in activity due to regional congestion, structural constraints may limit the ability to fully capitalize on these shifts.