📉 Tourism Earnings Undershoot Despite Strong Arrivals

• The Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLTDA) has sharply revised the estimated daily visitor spending downwards from $171 to $148, based on a new survey, correcting an outdated 2018 calculation. • The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) confirmed this revision explains the persistent gap between rising tourist arrivals and subdued tourism earnings, predicting 2025 earnings will be closer to last year's level ($3.17 Bn in 2024). • Immediate Impact: Official data shows a clear disconnect (YoY): • October: Revenue +0.3% vs. Arrivals +21.5%. • August: Revenue -8.2% vs. Arrivals +20.4%. • Analyst estimates (First Capital) project 2025 earnings around $3.3 Bn, well below the 2018 peak of $4.4 Bn, making the SLTDA's $5 Bn target highly unlikely. • Underlying Trend: The market is shifting towards shorter stays and lower-spending segments, largely driven by regional travellers (India, China). • While Asian markets provide the majority of arrivals volume, European markets (Russia, Germany) contribute more meaningfully to overall tourism value due to longer average stays.