## 📈 Trump’s "New-Old" World Order: Implications for Sri Lanka

The 2026 U.S. National Security Strategy and the recent invasion of Venezuela signal a shift toward raw unilateralism and "America First" realism, abandoning the traditional rules-based international order. • Geopolitical Shift: The "Trump Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine asserts U.S. dominance over the Western Hemisphere, prioritizing economic pre-eminence and access to strategic assets (e.g., oil in Venezuela, rare earth minerals in Greenland) over multilateral diplomacy. • Key Economic Drivers: • Energy & Mining: Direct military and corporate focus on securing oil and mineral supply chains. • Trade Barriers: Implementation of 20% "reciprocal" tariffs by the U.S. challenges Sri Lanka’s apparel & textiles exports and overall ICT/BPM growth. • EU Relations: U.S. support for far-right "patriotic" parties in Europe may disrupt EU integration and the GSP+ trade benefits Sri Lanka is set to reapply for in 2026. • Strategic Path for Sri Lanka: • Neutrality: Lessons from Finland and Austria suggest maintaining sovereignty through flexible neutrality. • Regional Stability: Adherence to the NPP’s policy of balanced relations with India and China is critical, especially as major powers prioritize their own interests (e.g., China’s pragmatic oil deals with the U.S.). • Domestic Resilience: Focusing on internal stability and avoiding the "crosshairs" of global powers is essential while navigating a more volatile, fragmented global market. • Outlook: U.S. domestic opposition and the 2028 election cycle may eventually moderate this extreme unilateralism. For now, Sri Lanka must prioritize pragmatic diplomacy to safeguard its export-led industrialization and debt sustainability.