US-APAC Trade Pacts Offer Slight Boost & Supply Chain Clarity 📈

• Overall Outlook: Fitch Ratings indicates recent US bilateral trade agreements with APAC nations (including China, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand) reduce exporter uncertainty and are expected to provide a small positive lift to GDP for countries involved over 2026-2027. • China Impact: The greatest economic effect stems from halving the 20% fentanyl-related US tariff on China, which reduces its effective overall US tariff rate by approximately 10 percentage points (pp). The countries also agreed to a one-year pause on recent tightening of trade restrictions. • Regional Growth: Korea and Vietnam should also see an uplift due to stronger demand from the US and China. Greater tariff clarity is anticipated to strengthen exporter confidence and support investment growth, particularly in key exporting markets like Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. • Tariff Differentials: The deals moderate US tariff differences between major Asian exporters, reducing the incentive for tariff-driven supply-chain shifts within the region. However, US tariffs on China remain higher than on most other countries. • Key Challenge: India currently faces a significantly higher 50% US tariff, as it has yet to secure a trade deal with the US. • Fiscal Policy: Several regional governments (Indonesia, Korea, Philippines, Thailand) have adopted looser fiscal policies to offset growth risks from US trade actions, a move which may impede fiscal consolidation efforts and affect public debt trajectories.