📈 US-EU Trade Tension Hits Global Markets; Sri Lanka Exports at Risk

Global stocks and the dollar dipped on Monday as President Trump threatened new 10% to 25% tariffs on 8 European nations over a Greenland purchase dispute. This escalation, coupled with existing US trade pressures, creates a volatile environment for Sri Lankan markets. • Overall Market Impact: • US S&P 500 futures fell 0.7%; Nasdaq futures down 1.0%. • European markets (DAX/EUROSTOXX) slid 1.1% on retaliatory fears. • Gold hit an all-time high of US$ 4,664/oz as investors sought safety. • Brent Crude eased 0.5% to US$ 63.84/bbl amid global growth concerns. • Sector Breakdowns & Sri Lanka Exposure: • Apparel & Textiles: Most vulnerable sector; industry experts warn that prolonged US-EU trade wars could dampen demand in Sri Lanka’s two largest export destinations. • Tea: Vulnerable to secondary US sanctions; tea exports (earning US$ 1.4 Bn in 2025) face risks if barter deals with nations like Iran trigger additional 25% US "punishing duties." • ICT/BPM: Remains a crucial buffer; services exports reached US$ 5 Bn in 2025, though global market instability may impact future contract scaling. • Strategic Outlook: With Sri Lanka's foreign reserves at US$ 6.1 Bn (as of end-2025), the economy faces a "weaponization of capital." Analysts suggest Sri Lanka must accelerate trade diversification toward East Asia to mitigate the impact of a potential 30%-44% US tariff scenario on garments and rubber products. _Note: Summary based on provisional market data and current geopolitical developments as of Jan 19, 2026._