📈 Non-Debt Options Crucial for Rs. 500 Bn Cyclone Recovery: Verité Research

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Sri Lanka faces a tightened fiscal landscape following the record Rs. 500 Bn supplementary allocation for Cyclone Ditwah recovery. Verité Research emphasizes non-debt financing to avoid worsening the debt-to-GDP ratio. • Spending Breakdown: - Total: Rs. 500 Bn (Largest in recent history). - Infrastructure Restoration: Rs. 250 Bn. - Business & Livelihood Recovery: Rs. 150 Bn. - Relief & Housing: Rs. 100 Bn. - Composition: Rs. 350 Bn (Capital) | Rs. 150 Bn (Recurrent). • Proposed Non-Debt Measures: - Solidarity Taxes: Time-bound surcharges on high personal incomes and corporate profits, similar to models in Japan and the US. - Cigarette Excise Duties: Implementing inflation-adjusted indexation for 2026 as per IMF commitments. - Grant Mobilization: Leveraging foreign aid, noting that 2004 Tsunami grants equaled approx. Rs. 360 Bn in today's value. - Withholding Tax: Raising rates as an efficient method for revenue collection at source. • Fiscal Impact: - Total 2026 expenditure rises from Rs. 7,057 Bn to Rs. 7,557 Bn. - Budget deficit widens from 5.1% to 6.5% of GDP. - Primary expenditure (14.3%) now exceeds the 13% ceiling set by the Public Finance Management Act. Verité warns that while cash buffers exist, lower-than-expected inflation has reduced nominal GDP, making debt-creating financing risky for long-term stability.

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