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View all(63)📈 Global Market Volatility & Commodity Surge: Sri Lanka Impact
Asian and global markets are experiencing significant turbulence as AI-driven disruption fears hit the software sector, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drive a rebound in commodities. • Global Market Wobble Global equities are on "shaky ground" following a sell-off in U.S. and European software and data analytics sectors. This stems from fears that advancements in AI (notably Anthropic’s new agents) could replace traditional software. Asian markets, including Japan’s Nikkei (-1.23%) and Taiwan (-0.68%), also dipped, though the region's focus on hardware manufacturing provided a partial buffer. • Oil & Energy Surge Global oil prices jumped over 1% (Brent at US$ 68.03) following military escalations involving U.S. and Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical waterway for Asian energy imports. This follows a recent Rs. 2 per litre cut in local fuel prices by CPC (Octane 92 at Rs. 292), which may face upward pressure if global trends persist. • Gold & Precious Metals Gold has staged a sharp comeback, reclaiming the US$ 5,000 per ounce level (+1.5%). Locally, this triggered a spike of approximately Rs. 12,000 per sovereign. • 24-Carat Gold: Rs. 380,000 • 22-Carat Gold: Rs. 349,000 • Economic Implications The volatility is exacerbated by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as U.S. Fed Chair, signaling a potential balance sheet shrinkage. While the Colombo Stock Exchange (ASPI) recently saw moderate declines, the local ICT/BPM sector remains a focal point for long-term AI-related structural shifts.
📈 CSE Ends Losing Streak on High Net Worth Interest
The Colombo Bourse recovered yesterday, snapping a three-session decline as activity from high net worth investors (HNWI) pushed indices into the green. • Market Performance: The ASPI rose by 0.22% (52.82 points) to close at 23,734.50, while the S&P SL20 edged up slightly to 6,597.34. • Turnover & Volume: Total market turnover reached Rs. 8.24 Bn with 276.9 million shares traded. Notably, crossings accounted for 49.4% of the day’s total turnover. • Sector Highlights: • The Banking sector dominated turnover (43%), led by Commercial Bank (COMB) which contributed Rs. 3.2 Bn (38.9% of total turnover). • Capital Goods and Diversified Financials collectively contributed 26% to the daily turnover. • Top gainers driving the index included Colombo Dockyard (DOCK), Teejay Lanka (TJL), and Ceylon Tobacco Company (CTC). • Investor Sentiment: Market activity was characterized by strong HNWI participation, though retail interest remained subdued. The session showed limited volatility as early gains moved into a consolidation phase. • Foreign Interest: Foreign investors remained net sellers with a net outflow of Rs. 1.3 Bn for the day. This brings the YTD foreign net outflow to Rs. 8.5 Bn.
Rs. 120 Bn Treasury Bill Auction Amid Declining Yields 📈
• Auction Overview: The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) has announced a Rs. 120 Bn Treasury Bill auction for today. The offer includes Rs. 30 Bn (91-day), Rs. 55 Bn (182-day), and Rs. 35 Bn (364-day) maturities. Notably, the total offer is below the estimated maturing volume of Rs. 137.17 Bn. • Yield Trends: Previous auction results show a downward trend for the second consecutive week. • 91-day: 7.84% (down 9 bps) • 182-day: 8.26% (down 10 bps) • 364-day: 8.36% (down 11 bps) • Market Liquidity & Demand: The government securities market remains buoyant with strong investor demand. Last week’s auction was oversubscribed, and current net liquidity surplus stands elevated at Rs. 212.54 Bn. Secondary market activity was healthy, specifically focusing on 2029 maturities and short-term bills. • Currency Movement: The Sri Lankan Rupee (LKR) showed slight depreciation against the US Dollar. Spot contracts closed at Rs. 309.55/309.63, compared to the previous close of Rs. 309.25/309.35. Daily trade volume for USD/LKR was recorded at $ 103.75 Mn. • Interest Rates: Overnight call money and Repo rates remained stable at 7.70% and 7.75% respectively, reflecting consistent conditions in the banking and finance sector.
CSE Opens February on a Down Note 📉
The Colombo Stock Exchange started the month in the red, with benchmark indices retreating despite maintaining healthy market participation levels. • Overall Market Performance • ASPI: Dropped 130.63 points (0.55%) to close at 23,681.68. • S&P SL20: Fell by 43.95 points (0.66%) to settle at 6,597.20. • Turnover: Recorded at Rs. 5.17 Bn (approx. US$ 16.7 Mn), a decrease from the previous session's Rs. 9.19 Bn. • Sector & Stock Highlights • Capital Goods: Emerged as the most active sector, contributing Rs. 2.1 Bn to the daily turnover. • Banking: Commercial Bank (down 1.0%) announced plans to raise Rs. 20 Bn via Basel III-compliant debentures. • Manufacturing & Industrials: Colombo Dockyard saw a sharp decline of 5.97% to Rs. 145.00 following recent stake acquisition news. • Deltas: Major negative contributors included Ceylinco Holdings, Melstacorp, and Commercial Bank. • Investor Sentiment • Foreign investors were net sellers (Rs. 453.1 Mn), while domestic participation remained the primary driver of liquidity. • The downturn follows a strong January where the ASPI gained 5.25%, suggesting a period of short-term profit-taking as the market enters the new month. _Note: Based on provisional market data for February 02, 2026._
📈 Global Gold Outlook: JP Morgan Targets US$ 6,300 by Year-End
JP Morgan has issued a strongly bullish forecast for gold, projecting prices to reach US$ 6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026. This comes despite recent volatility, where bullion fell over 5% on Monday to US$ 4,677.17/oz, retreating from a record high of US$ 5,594.82. • Core Drivers: The rally is powered by a "structural diversification trend," with central banks and private investors shifting from paper assets to real assets. • Institutional Demand: JP Morgan forecasts central bank purchases to reach 800 tons in 2026, maintaining a high floor for the market. • Silver Outlook: While silver fell 6% to US$ 78.90/oz (down from its US$ 121.64 peak), analysts expect a support floor between US$ 75–US$ 80/oz. • National Context: For Sri Lanka, the global surge significantly impacts local jewelry and investment sectors. In late 2025, local 24K gold reached a historic Rs. 410,000 per sovereign, reflecting the 66% YoY global gain in 2025. _Note: Forecasts are based on current market trends and provisional demand data for 2026._
Rupee Treasury Holdings Surge to Two-Year High 📈
• Overall Figures: Foreign holdings in rupee-denominated Government Securities saw a net inflow of Rs. 6.63 Bn, bringing the total to Rs. 146.56 Bn—the highest level since November 2023. • Liquidity & Rates: Market liquidity reached a five-year high of Rs. 233.13 Bn. This surplus pushed inter-bank call money and repo rates down to 7.70% and 7.72% respectively, compared to December highs of over 8%. • Market Performance: The Secondary Bond market saw robust activity with yields trending lower, particularly in the 2029–2037 segment. Treasury Bill auctions were fully subscribed, raising Rs. 137.50 Bn amid strong demand. • Key Indicators: • Inflation: January CCPI recorded at +2.3%, remaining well below the Central Bank’s 5.0% target. • Currency: The Sri Lankan Rupee (LKR) appreciated against the US Dollar, closing the week at Rs. 309.25/35 vs. the previous week’s Rs. 309.76. • Bond Auctions: Successfully raised Rs. 179.06 Bn (87.35% of offer), with weighted averages aligning with or falling below market rates.
📈 JKSB Forecasts ASPI to Hit 28,000 in 2026
John Keells Stock Brokers (JKSB) anticipates the All Share Price Index (ASPI) will reach 28,000 this year, driven by recurring earnings growth and stable macroeconomic reforms. • Market Performance & Valuation: The ASPI stood at 23,812 as of Friday, marking a 115% increase since September 2024. Market coverage indicates trading at 10.8x FY26E earnings, with a forward expectation of 9.2x for FY27E. Increased foreign participation and IPO activity are expected over the next 2-3 years due to attractive valuations. • Macroeconomic Outlook: GDP Growth: Forecasted at 4-5% for 2026. Inflation: Expected to remain muted at 4-5% in the second half of 2026. Fiscal Health: Primary fiscal surplus projected at ~4%; Revenue-to-GDP expected to rise from 15.6% to 16%. Credit & Consumption: Private credit growth is maintaining a rate of Rs. 200 Bn per month. • Key Economic Drivers: Sustained IMF program reforms and fiscal discipline. Growth in digitization and capital market deepening. Normalization of profit margins following the previous hyperinflation crisis.
📈 DFCC Bank to Raise Rs. 10 Bn via Bond Issue
The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) has granted in-principle approval for DFCC Bank PLC to issue Basel III compliant, Tier 2 subordinated bonds to strengthen its capital base. • Issue Details: The bank will initially offer 70 million bonds at Rs. 100 each, with an option to issue an additional 30 million bonds if oversubscribed, totaling Rs. 10 billion. • Bond Structures & Rates: The offering consists of three types of unsecured, redeemable GSS+ bonds: Type A: 5-year tenure at 11.50% fixed p.a. Type B: 7-year tenure at 11.75% fixed p.a. Type C: 10-year tenure at 12.00% fixed p.a. • Timeline: The subscription list is scheduled to open on 6 February 2026. This move reflects ongoing efforts within the banking sector to enhance regulatory capital requirements and support long-term lending capacity.
📈 CSE Records 5.25% Monthly Growth Amid Mixed Trading
Despite closing the final sessions of the month on a downward note, the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) demonstrated strong resilience throughout January 2026, driven by sustained investor interest in key financial and industrial sectors. • Market Performance: The All Share Price Index (ASPI) gained 5.25% overall in January, despite a daily dip of 88.58 points (-0.37%) to close at 23,812.31 on the 30th. • Blue-Chip Activity: The S&P SL20 Index fell by 14.51 points to 6,641.15 during the final session, reflecting a slight correction in large-cap stocks. • Liquidity: Daily market turnover remained robust at Rs. 9.19 billion, indicating high participation levels compared to historical averages. • Summary: While the month ended with two consecutive days of losses, the overall 5.25% monthly appreciation signals a positive start for the year for Sri Lanka's capital markets. _Note: Based on provisional market data as of January 30, 2026._ ---
Indonesia Market Turmoil: $80 Bn Rout Triggers Regulatory Action 📈
• Market Crash: Indonesian stocks faced a massive selloff, erasing $80 billion in market value after an 8% drop over two days. This follows a warning from index provider MSCI regarding a potential downgrade to "frontier-market" status due to transparency concerns. • Economic Impact: The rupiah hit near-record lows of 16,745 against the US Dollar. Foreign capital outflows in 2025 reached $834 million, the worst since 2020. Goldman Sachs warns of potential further outflows of up to $7.8 billion if a downgrade occurs. • Regulatory Response: To restore investor confidence, authorities are doubling the free-float requirement for listed firms to 15% and increasing disclosure on shareholdings. Markets saw a modest late-day recovery following these announcements. • National Context: Analysts note that a downgrade would place Indonesia—currently an emerging market—into the "frontier market" category alongside countries like Sri Lanka, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. • Investor Concerns: Sentiment remains fragile due to a widening fiscal deficit and leadership changes at the central bank, which have shaken confidence in the nation's fiscal stewardship and institutional strength. _Note: Data based on market reports as of Jan 30, 2026._
Bullish Rs. 205 Bn Bond Auction Drives Yields Down 📈
Sri Lanka’s debt market displayed strong bullish momentum yesterday as the Public Debt Management Office successfully raised Rs. 179.06 Bn (87.35% of the total offer) across three maturities. The results reflect high market liquidity and a general decline in interest rates. • Auction Performance The auction saw robust demand with a bid-to-acceptance ratio of 2.38x. 01.03.30 maturity: Fully raised at 9.72%. 15.06.34 maturity: Fully subscribed at 10.92%. 01.07.37 maturity: Undersubscribed, issued at 11.08%. • Secondary Market Highlights The secondary bond market saw yields drop notably post-auction as traders shifted to the belly-to-long end of the curve. 2029 maturities traded between 9.60% and 9.65%. 2034-2037 tenors saw a bullish decline, trading down to 10.85% and 11.00% respectively. Total transacted volume reached Rs. 60.69 Bn. • Economic Indicators Liquidity: The money market surplus remained high at Rs. 194.26 Bn, keeping overnight rates stable around 7.69%–7.72%. Currency: The Rupee appreciated slightly, with the USD/LKR spot closing at Rs. 309.35/45 compared to the previous Rs. 309.60/67.
📈 CSE Ends Lower as ASPI Retreats from 24,000 Milestone
The Colombo stock market ended in the red for the fourth consecutive session as early gains above the 24,000 mark succumbed to profit-taking and cautious investor sentiment. • Market Performance Overview • ASPI: Down 0.38% (-91.22 points) to 23,900.89. • S&P SL20: Down 0.22% (-14.55 points) to 6,655.66. • Turnover: Rs. 6.9 Bn with 277.3 Mn shares traded. • Foreign Activity: Net outflow of Rs. 20.9 Mn. • Sector & Stock Highlights • Capital Goods: Led turnover (22% share) at Rs. 1.55 Bn, despite a sector index dip of 0.64%. Key activity seen in Hemas Holdings and Colombo Dockyard. • Real Estate: Second highest contributor; sector index rose 0.70% driven by Prime Lands Residencies (up Rs. 2.60 to Rs. 46.80). • Finance & Consumer: Softlogic Capital gained Rs. 1.40, while Ceylon Tobacco Company fell by Rs. 49.75. • Investor Sentiment & Liquidity • Market breadth was weak with 140 decliners against 77 gainers. • High net worth and institutional interest remained selective, while increased retail participation supported liquidity. • Crossings accounted for Rs. 1.76 Bn (25% of total turnover), notably in Prime Lands Residencies. Based on daily market provisional data.